- Time Series Tutorial
- Time Series - Home
- Time Series - Introduction
- Time Series - Programming Languages
- Time Series - Python Libraries
- Data Processing & Visualization
- Time Series - Modeling
- Time Series - Parameter Calibration
- Time Series - Naive Methods
- Time Series - Auto Regression
- Time Series - Moving Average
- Time Series - ARIMA
- Time Series - Variations of ARIMA
- Time Series - Exponential Smoothing
- Time Series - Walk Forward Validation
- Time Series - Prophet Model
- Time Series - LSTM Model
- Time Series - Error Metrics
- Time Series - Applications
- Time Series - Further Scope
- Time Series Useful Resources
- Time Series - Quick Guide
- Time Series - Useful Resources
- Time Series - Discussion
Time Series - Prophet Model
In 2017, Facebook open sourced the prophet model which was capable of modelling the time series with strong multiple seasonalities at day level, week level, year level etc. and trend. It has intuitive parameters that a not-so-expert data scientist can tune for better forecasts. At its core, it is an additive regressive model which can detect change points to model the time series.
Prophet decomposes the time series into components of trend $g_{t}$, seasonality $S_{t}$ and holidays $h_{t}$.
$$y_{t}=g_{t}+s_{t}+h_{t}+\epsilon_{t}$$
Where, $\epsilon_{t}$ is the error term.
Similar packages for time series forecasting such as causal impact and anomaly detection were introduced in R by google and twitter respectively.
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