Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model is the simplest way to depict the demographic history of a region or country. This model is the product of observations regarding population growth and development across numerous countries throughout the world. The Demographic Transition Model believes in the strong association between the birth and death rates on the one hand and industrialization and economic development on the other.

Historic Background

Post industrial revolution and agricultural advancements, human geographers became very keen in studying the change in population across the world. In the year 1929, Warren Thompson, the American demographer published his work on demographic transition model. He became the first demographer to identify the theory of demographic transition by observing global trends in birth and death rates.

Stages of the Demographic Transition Model

The demographic transition model breaks down the demography of a region into five separate transitions or stages that a region goes through throughout its economic development. Out of which, four are the key stages, and the fifth stage is a bit less established and mostly futuristic.

Stage I: The Pre-Industrial Stage

Until the late 18th century, most of the countries in the world were experiencing this stage. The economy was mostly dependent on subsistence agriculture. This stage experienced a high birth rate and a high death rate, resulting in high fluctuations in the total population. Incidences such as famine, widespread diseases and wars made the life expectancy at its lowest and infant mortality at its highest. The total population seemed to be balanced and maintained at a low level due to high birth and death rates. At present, no country is experiencing the characteristics of this stage. However, it is applicable to the societies of the isolated tribes with less or no contact with the outer world.

Stage II: The Early Expanding Stage

Because of the industrial revolution, improvements in farming technology, and an increase in food supply ensured food and nutritional security for the people. Increased female literacy, combined with public health education programmes and advancement in public health care and sanitation resulted in a significant reduction in the death rate among people. But the birth rate remained very high, resulting in a very quick increase in the total population.

The gap between the birth and death rates started to increase rapidly. Currently, some of the poorer underdeveloped and developing countries, such as Pakistan, Niger, Afghanistan, Bolivia, Yemen, and Uganda, are still in this demographic stage.

Stage III: The Late Expanding Stage

Mechanization of agriculture demanded fewer children being needed to work on farms. Women’s education causes an improvement in their status in society. The Availability of birth control measures and the improved status of women in society reduce the birth rate. On the other hand, improved health care ensured a low death rate. Thus, the rate of increase in population tends to decrease. However, the total population still rises rapidly due to population momentum. The gap between the birth and death rates narrows down significantly.

Most of the developing countries that have registered significant social and economic advances are at this stage, such as Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, South Africa, and India.

Stage IV: The Stabilization Stage

Desire for a smaller family to tackle growing competition for finite resources, wide availability of birth control measures, improved and advanced health care infrastructures result in low birth and death rates. The rate of increase in population reduces further. Total population remains high with shrunken gap between birth and death rates. Well-developed countries such as The United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, and most of the European countries are in this stage. Newly industrialized countries such as South Korea and Taiwan have just entered stage IV.

Stage V: Declining Population Stage

A low birth rate well below replacement level leads to a decline in population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increase in lifestyle diseases like obesity, stress and diabetes. Countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and Russia are leading to a shrinking population. The United States would be approaching this stage if it were not for the influx of migrants.

Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model

• The social and cultural attributes differ greatly among nations, causing them to operate differently than we expect based solely on the demographic transition model.

• Economic development does not guarantee the kind of social changes that would lead to a reduction in birth rates. For instance, a country might experience significant economic development and industrialization without providing women with education and widespread access to birth control measures.

• The countries that entered stage V don't necessarily possess a declining population in the current scenario.

• The demographic transition model does not include government interventions like population control and family planning policies.

• Wars and pandemics are not confined to Stage II, as said by this model.

Conclusion

The Demographic Transition Model is a safe assumption in most cases, as it has been demonstrated to be consistently true by many historical instances of industrialization and development since the 19th century. In spite of the controversies, the demographic transition model has been used as the benchmark for forecasting human population growth regionally and globally.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Demographic transition model exactly define?

The Demographic Transition Model explains the natural sequence of change in population as the world develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. This model focuses on the causes and consequences of fertility, mortality, and natural increase rates.

• What are the stages of the demographic transition model?

  • Stage I − The Pre-Industrial Stage

  • Stage II − The Early expanding stage

  • Stage III − The Late expanding stage

  • Stage IV − The stabilization stage

  • Stage V − Declining population stage

• List out some of the countries that are experiencing ‘The Late expanding stage’.

Most developing countries that have registered significant social and economic advances are in the ‘The Late expanding stage’. They are Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica, Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, South Africa, and India.

Who has proposed the Demographic Transition Model?

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) was proposed by an American Demographer Warren Thompson in the 1920s. He observed changes in population patterns and identified a general pattern of demographic transition occurring as societies undergo economic and social development.